IS IT TIME TO STOP LOOKING AND START BUYING?

By Angelo Virone — Cover price variant collector and historian (Contact by email), October 2023

“I cannot tell you how many times I track books I want to buy and later discover that they settled in the USA.”

Price-wise, the comic book market has been spiraling lower, hence it’s only normal that Canadian Price Variants have fallen victim as well... but not all!

Buy the top 100 CPV’s with confidence if you see a 30-50% discount to their 12-month sold averages. If you need money right away go ahead and sell, if you don’t, hold-off until prices improve from here. It’s my opinion that this price slump will not result in a V-shape recovery but should look more like a hockey stick pattern (prices have gone down and now forming a base and will probably stay there for months). This latter pattern is what I’m expecting given the uncertainty of the overall global financial system (inflation, looming recession, bond market, war breaking out in other countries, etc.). Most short-term speculators will have moved on at this point, leaving behind a more balanced market with lower, yet stable prices. Buyers are there, they simply hesitate jumping in too early. For exceptionally hard to find key books in top grades, this rule does not apply.

I would stay away from speculative books unless purchased at a sizeable discount in 9.8 CGC only. However, these books need a wow factor (i.e., first appearance, 1st solo issue, etc.…). Obviously, my argument goes out the window if you are buying as a collector and not for investment purposes.

Be mindful of the quote, “the time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets,” often first attributed to Nathan Rothschild.

Some buyers who got in at the height of the pandemic are now selling due to financial stress. I’ve noticed a few key books graded 9.2-9.6 CGC selling for huge discounts at auctions. To be clear, these sales are anomalies and not generalized sales for any one issue specifically. If an investor has a 5-10-year time-frame, these graded key books have the potential to generate the best ROI (Return on Investment).

During the summer, a G.I.Joe #21 (9.2) sold online for a little over $400. I was not able to bid at the end because I was busy doing something else. After speaking to another local CPV collector, he also wanted to bid but could not, so who knows what that final strike price could have been? The problem with this sale is that it sets a precedence for future prices of G.I.Joe #21’s specifically online. Ironically, a couple of raw copies in grades lower than this one sold at a local con for almost the same price.

Here’s an interesting perspective, the top CPV seller I know with the highest quality key books tends to sell at break-out prices beyond anything recorded on auction sites and GPAnalysis.com. When I pressed him further on this, he mentioned that his clients know he will likely have that specific CPV in top grade and they don’t mind paying a healthy premium. Seeking these books at cons or online is time consuming so they appreciate someone doing the legwork for them. Trust in a seller is also key to these buyers given they can’t always inspect a book in-hand. Hence, it’s natural to conclude there’s a parallel set of books with two different price-points thanks to a tailored customer base searching for a white glove service. Knowing this, I believe opportunities exist for the rest of us when looking for issues online. We simply need to spend considerable time searching in order to take advantage of opportunities that present themselves.

On a different point, if you consider selling in this current market, auctions might not be advantageous for grades below 9.8. And to quote Jayden Mitchell, one of our contributors:

“It’s best to place a fixed, ‘buy it now’ price because auctions can swing either way.”
— Jayden Mitchell

TWO POSITIVE INDICATORS

With the high volume of comics getting graded, the census still remains rather LOW and SCARCE for CPV’s. This positive catalyst indicates that the mid to long term outlook for Canadian Newsstand Price Variants (AKA: CPV’s) signals a strong BULLISH signal that foreshadows price appreciation! Hence, scarcity alone will not accomplish this unless it meets a strong demand for the issue in question!

ANOTHER BULLISH indicator that’s getting stronger with each passing year is that key quality books are FLOWING OUT OF CANADA at an increasing rate. I cannot tell you how many times I track books I want to buy and later discover that they settled in the USA. I’m also noticing a number of CPV’s being bought in the UK, Italy and Singapore with increased appetite. I can predict with confidence that sooner rather than later Canadian collectors and investors will be buying the most desirable CPV’s from countries abroad!

CAREFUL WHEN BUYING ONLINE

In the fall of 2023, a Wolverine Limited #4 (9.9) CPV sold for $9377 via an online auction. I was more than happy to bid, but lost. The high selling price surprised many of us. I found out that this specific book had two issues going on with the back cover. The first being a crease visible to the naked eye and the other being one of two things; a corner crunch or a manufacturing defect. Neither one of these could be seen while looking at online pics because the background was white. I would expect a graded 9.9 CGC to look aesthetically nicer than a 9.8 but this was not the case.

Just recently, I bought a 9.4 CGC CPV magazine from one of the auction houses and discovered it had multiple tears and creases almost impossible to spot with the pics online. This begs the question, where was quality control at CGC?

Going back to the Wolverine Limited #4 (9.9) CGC CPV, it was in an older case and possibly over the years, damage occurred when transporting the slab from point A to point B? Sending in the book to CGC for a re-holder will probably trigger quality control to downgrade it? Thus, given the risk, it leaves but one choice, to keep it in the current case. I feel this may be an overall problem with certified 9.9’s and 10’s in general. How many, if resubmitted would come back in the same grade? My opinion would be-almost none! It all comes down to buying the grade and not the book at this point. This reminds me of the double cover Marvel Super Heroes Secret Wars #8 CGC CPV (9.8-9.8) signed by Stan Lee that sold a couple of years back for north of $4000. The outer cover should never have been graded a 9.8 given it had 3 visible spine tics that broke color.

GOOD BOOKS TO BUY NOW

C.P.V. MAGAZINES are GAINING STEAM and IN DEMAND. I would focus more on key Vampirella’s in the top 20, Eerie #81 with that stunning Frazetta cover, Creepy #113, #145 and especially #146 which is especially tough to find in a higher grade but will cost a pretty penny if lucky enough to find one!

I’m trying to upgrade numerous CPV mags in my personal collection so reach out if you are planning on selling or trading any.

Comics I’m either seeking for my personal collection or trying to hoard if found mislabeled at a discounted price are the following: Blip #1-7 (especially #1, 2, 5 &7), Archie’s in the top 100, G.I.Joe #21, Transformers #1, Swamp Thing #20, 21, 25, 37, 49 and 50.

I enjoy Harvey comics but I’m EXTREMELY selective with what I purchase and even more selective when it comes to graded Whitman 75cent CPV’s (9.2+) given the lackluster prices in auctions this year.

Archie's Girls Betty & Veronica #320 CPV

Remember that key CPV’s in top grades come in two tiers, those that seldom get posted for sale and those that come up more often. For the right price, both tiers are worth investing in. See one of my past market reports, where I explain the different categories of CPV’s. Click the following link then scroll to the middle of my report:
Get Them Now or Chase Them Later
(https://rarecomics.wordpress.com/get-them-now-or-chase-them-later/)

For further technical guidance in seeking the right investment book(s) click on the following link to find my COMIC SCORE CARD (https://www.cpvpriceguide.com/comic-score-card/)

A BIG THANKS TO CERTAIN INDIVIDUALS

I would like to thank my colleagues working diligently around the clock over the last several months putting together our latest 2024 CPV guide (Bill Alexander, Tim Bildhauser, Paul Clairmont, Greg Holland, Jon McClure, Jayden Mitchell, Conan Saunders and Doug Sulipa). An EXTRA shout out goes to Benjamin Nobel for being so much more than a contributor! As the project organizer, he wears so many hats that I've lost count (not joking!). His relentless determination and consistent hard work is unmatched. I think Ben could be summed up using a famous quote everyone knows from Rocky, "It ain't about how hard you hit. It's about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward."

A big thank you to Jay Halstead who has contributed a wealth of information to our guide over the years but cannot continue due to other commitments.

Thanks go out to GPAnalysis for contributing their CPV sales data; please be sure to read this year's updated article by Greg Holland which analyzes the recent marketplace sales of CGC-graded CPVs as reported by GPAnalysis.

To Stephen Cranch for contributing another article this year, covering other Type 1A cover price variants distributed in the UK, which follows his excellent article on Charlton CPVs contributed to last year's guide!

Concomitantly, the real superstars of this guide are you the many readers, experts, and dealers in Canada, USA and abroad, from the greater CPV community via Instagram, Facebook, CGC and CBCS Boards, etc…! Thank you for your suggestions, corrections, insights and sharing your CPV sales year-after-year behind the scenes.

In Conclusion:

Rule #1: Buy ‘quality’ books in the highest grade you can reasonably afford as opposed to buying ‘quantity’ in lower grades when ‘investing’ in C.P.V.’s
Rule #2: Don’t forget rule #1.

— Angelo Virone

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