Rare Comics
By Greg Holland, Overstreet Advisor, CGCData.com administrator, writer for GPAnalysis and SlabData.com, November 2024
“The year-to-date 2024 average CGC sales prices for the top 100 books with a CPV have reflected multipliers of:
CGC 9.8 - 2.9x
CGC 9.6 - 1.8x
CGC 9.4 - 1.5x
CGC 9.2 - 1.4x
More than 5,500 sales recorded by GPAnalysis.com in 2024 were compiled to produce the multipliers above, with 267 CPV sales (4.8%). These 2024 multipliers are very similar to the 2023 and 2022 multipliers, indicating consistency year-to-year for this method of calculation. The CGC 9.8 calculation of 2.9 x Regular $ does show an increase in the multiplier for the high grade.”
GPA records for CPVs have risen significantly since 2002, CPV sales recorded by GPAnalysis increased significantly in 2017, with 110 recorded sales. The total count for 2023 was 1,213 CGC CPV sales. The current count for 2024 is 821 CPV sales through mid-November. More than 78% of all 6,486 recorded CGC CPV sales have occurred since January 2020.
The 5,067 CPV sales since January 1, 2020, represent 3.0% of the 167,042 sales for those issues during the same timeframe. Sales for other comic books which do not have a CPV, such as thousands of sales for Amazing Spider-Man #300, were not included in this analysis. Any comic book which has at least one recorded CPV sale at any time since 2002 was isolated for the sales of CPV or non-CPV which occurred in the 2020-2024 timeframe. The total number of sales has increased by 4.3% from 160,892 sales in 2019- 2023 to 167,042 sales in 2020-2024.
Archie Publications is notable for introducing direct editions in 1988, about ten years later than Marvel and D.C. Comics. The CPV percentage of 7.8% reflects a Canadian population which had only recently been given the option to purchase an issue other than a CPV. Warren also has a higher percentage of CPV, but a low overall total count. Removing the Archie Publications and Warren/Harris counts from the totals in the chart above would lower the Total CPV % of 3.0% slightly to 2.9%.
While Marvel and D.C. Comics reflect 2.9% CPV and 3.1% CPV, respectively, in GPA recorded sales from 2020 to present, the CGC Census for those issues are 2.8% CPV for Marvel and 3.0% CPV for D.C. Comics. As the prices have increased for CPVs, the condition which is “worth submitting” to CGC has decreased. For example, a non-CPV which might sell for only $40 in CGC 9.6 would be difficult to produce a profit after CGC grading, while a CPV of the same issue might sell for $80 in CGC 9.6 and warrant submission to CGC. As a result, the CPV percentage for CGC 9.6 might be overstated relative to the full population.
The overall 3.0% CPV percentage for GPA recorded sales from 2020 to present should be compared to the CPV percentage for a specific grade, such as CGC 9.8. In general, CGC grading is more likely for comic books in higher grades, and CGC 9.8 is the most common CGC grade for comic books from the 1980s. The next most common CGC grades are CGC 9.6 and CGC 9.4.
When it comes to the estimated “survival rates” for CPVs in high grade, more than 38,000 Marvel and nearly 11,000 D.C. sales show a CGC 9.8 CPV rate of 2.2% and 2.7%, respectively. It is possible that CGC grades lower than CGC 9.8 are not profitable enough to be submitted to CGC as often for non-CPV issues, and the percentage of CPVs for CGC 9.6 and CGC 9.4 would be expected to increase due to fewer non-CPVs graded by CGC. There are increases to 3.1% CGC 9.6 and 3.4% CGC 9.4 percentages for CPVs from Marvel and 3.3% CGC 9.6 and 3.1% CGC 9.4 percentages for D.C. Comics. Both CGC 9.6 and CGC 9.4 are higher percentages for CPV as expected, but they are only about 1% higher than the CGC 9.8 percentages.
For specific comic books in higher demand, it is possible that all copies grading 9.4 and above are worth submitting to CGC whether they are CPV or non-CPV for a particular issue. For example, Amazing Spider-Man #252 is a popular submission to CGC for CPV and non-CPV. CGC has graded more than 24,000 copies of Amazing Spider-Man #252 and more than 12,000 copies are graded below CGC 9.4. When the demand is consistent for CGC grades of CGC 9.4 or higher, the CPV percentages may be representative of the actual survival rates for high grades for a particular issue.
Consistent CPV percentages between 2.9% and 3.6% covers all CGC grades from 7.0 to 9.8, with the overall percentage of 3.3% in the middle of the 2.9% to 3.6% range for Amazing Spider-Man #252 according to the CGC Census.
The number of sales recorded by GPA would be expected to represent only a small portion of the total number of CGC graded copies. In fact, Amazing Spider-Man #252 has over 1,800 CGC 9.8 copies on the CGC Census, but only 103 CGC 9.8 sales in 2024 according to GPA. Only one of the 103 CGC 9.8 sales was a CPV. Conclusions based upon the GPA sales data are not necessarily correct, since many factors influence the decision to submit a comic book to CGC, or to sell the CGC graded comic in a venue that reports to GPA. One or two additional CPV sales would have a significant impact on GPA results, indicating that statistical significance may not be possible using a single year of GPA results for a particular book.
Conditions of comic books may be due to handling by the original vendor, the original collector, or any number of people since that time. Conditions are sometimes due to poor production methods, even when the vendor and collectors did all they could to preserve the comic afterwards. It is known that comic books which are handled carefully by the vendor and protected very well by the collector will have higher condition grades than comics which are not as carefully handled or as well protected.
Direct editions were primarily sold in comic book specialty stores, which were frequented by more “serious” collectors and often provided the option for bag and board protection at the time of purchase in the 1980s. Newsstand issues (both U.S. and Canadian Price Variant) were sold more often at non- comic stores such as grocery stores, convenience stations, or magazine and newspaper stands. The handling by the original vendor was generally more damaging to comic books, and the buyer was rarely offered a bag and board for the comic’s protection at the time of the purchase for newsstand issues.
To investigate whether higher CPV percentages are due to high grade survival rates or due to prices which are unprofitable for CGC submission at lower grades, individual issues should be evaluated by the same methods as the publishers. Again, the conclusions may be incorrect, but the data reflects thousands of CGC graded comic book sales from many different sellers, which is usually thousands more data points than any collector has from their own CPV experiences.
Because the non-CPV prices for CGC 9.8 averaged $491, it is unlikely that non-CPV copies of this issue were held back from CGC submissions due to low value. Instead, it is more likely that CGC 9.8 is simply a more difficult grade to obtain for CPVs than non-CPVs, probably due to different (average) handling and storage conditions between direct editions and CPVs from 1984 to present. The top 5 most-often sold issues with CPV editions are profiled in the table above. Note that two of the top 5 (Marvel Super Heroes Secret Wars #1 and Amazing Spider-Man #238) do not have a CPV CGC 9.8 sale recorded during 2024.
Four of the five books profiled had CPV sales recorded in GPA at rates between 1.5% and 1.8% during 2024. This consistency in CPV percentage is potentially a strong statement on the normal market conditions for CGC graded CPVs among popular issues. Amazing Spider-Man #252 had a higher CPV percentage at 2.7%, but it is believed that collectors and retailers “rescued” many more copies of Amazing Spider-Man #252 and certain other books such as Thor #337 than they did for most CPV books during their original sale dates.
The survival of high grade Canadian Price Variant (CPV) editions forty years later is greatly impacted by the initial popularity of the comic book at the time of its release. Direct editions which sold out quickly in comic shops could be obtained as newsstand editions after the direct edition supply was exhausted. Comic shop retailers may have also purchased quantities of newsstand editions to replenish their inventory for issues which had sold out too quickly. Many of these immediately popular issues purchased at newsstands were included (and protected) more often in long-term collections of primarily direct edition buyers because of unusually high initial demand for the issue. In the United States, newsstand editions are more commonly found for immediately popular issues such as ASM #252 and Thor #337. In contrast, when a comic had plenty of direct edition supply during the time the newsstands and CPVs were for sale, the newsstand and CPV comics were purchased by newsstand buyers almost exclusively, and unsold copies of newsstand and CPV comics were returned.
For the top 100 comic books with the most CGC recorded sales in 2024 for which there is a CPV edition, 16,120 sales occurred and only 355 were CPV editions (2.20%). Removing these two immediately popular issues, Amazing Spider-Man #252 and Thor #337, from the top 100 drops the number of recorded CGC sales in 2024 to 14,681 and the CPV percentage for the other 98 books drops to 2.15%.
The most important question about the survival of newsstands and CPVs may be, “did direct edition buyers choose to purchase this issue at the time of its release more often than average?” Direct edition buyers, most often by ignoring newsstands and CPVs in the 1980s, may be the primary factor in determining the survival rates for newsstands and CPVs today.
Continuing the analysis of CPV editions in CGC grades below 9.8, the top 5 books previously reported have these details for 2024 sales recorded by GPAnalysis.
In cases where there are 2024 sales for both a CPV and direct edition of the same comic book in the same grade, the prices can be compared to determine whether CPV books carry a premium value (above the direct edition), and if so, how much of a premium?
For the top 100 most often sold CGC graded books with a CPV possible, there are 42 books with 2024 sales in both CGC 9.8 direct edition and CGC 9.8 CPV. The average sale price for CGC 9.8 CPV is 2.9 times the CGC 9.8 direct edition sale price. There are 47 books with 2024 sales in both CGC 9.6 direct edition and CGC 9.6 CPV. The average sale price for CGC 9.6 CPV is 1.8 times the CGC 9.6 direct edition sale price. There are 39 books with 2024 sales in both CGC 9.4 direct edition and CGC 9.4 CPV. The average sale price for CGC 9.4 CPV is 1.5 times the CGC 9.4 direct edition sale price. There are 25 books with 2024 sales in both CGC 9.2 direct edition and CGC 9.2 CPV. The average sale price for CGC 9.2 CPV is 1.4 times the CGC 9.2 direct edition sale price.
In summary, 2024 average CGC sales prices for the top 100 books with CPV have reflected multipliers of:
More than 5,500 sales recorded by GPAnalysis.com in 2024 were compiled in the specified grades to produce the multipliers above, with 267 CPV sales (4.8%). These 2024 multipliers are very similar to the 2023 and 2022 multipliers, indicating consistency year-to-year for this method of calculation. The CGC 9.8 calculation of 2.9 x Regular $ does show an increase in the multiplier for the high grade.
— Greg Holland
If you enjoyed this article, also see:
• Canadian Price Variants (CPVs) and the CGC Census (2024)
• Newsstand & Direct Edition Data – Where GPAnalysis is Leading the Way
About the Author
Greg Holland has collected comic books for over 30 years and has been the administrator of the CGC Census Analysis website CGCdata.com since 2003. Dr. Holland holds a Ph.D. in information quality from the University of Arkansas at Little Rock and has held data science positions as research director, analyst, and administrator for government, corporations, and university. He is the 1999 founder of the ValiantComics.com website and the 2004 ValiantFans.com message board. Active on the CGC Forums as ‘valiantman’ since 2002, he is also a 15+ year advisor to the Overstreet Comic Book Price Guide and contributor to later editions of the Standard Catalog of Comic Books. Greg resides in Arkansas, USA, with his wife and their daughter.